The Black Swan

The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. their impact is huge; theyre impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide . . . I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person Will Self, Independent on Sunday He leaps like some superhero of the mind Boyd Tonkin, Independent